NEW: Manifest 2024 is happening June 7-9!

Check it out at manifest.is!

SEPT 22-24

BERKELEY, CA

MANIFOLD’S INAUGURAL

FORECASTING FESTIVAL

A gathering of forecasting nerds

Manifest is a festival for forecasting & prediction markets, hosted by Manifold. Meet friends, learn from experts, play games & chill at the lovely campus. And predict the future, ofc.

Manifest 2023

About 250 attendees spent 3 days listening to talks & attending workshops from Nate Silver, Emmett Shear, Robin Hanson, Scott Alexander, Dylan Matthews, as well as from founders & CEOs at Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, and more.

The Next Manifest

You can fill out the interest form to stay in the loop about next Manifest (< 1 min).

Special guests

  • Robin Hanson

    ECONOMIST & PROFESSOR

  • Nate Silver

    STATISTICIAN, AUTHOR, & FOUNDER OF 538

  • Tarek Mansour

    CEO OF KALSHI

  • Shayne Coplan

    CEO OF POLYMARKET

  • Destiny

    STREAMER & POLITICAL COMMENTATOR

  • Dylan Matthews

    HEAD WRITER AT FUTURE PERFECT, VOX

  • Zvi Mowshowitz

    Writer & CEO of Balsa Research

  • Ozzie Gooen

    PRESIDENT OF QURI; FOUNDER OF GUESSTIMATE

  • Patrick McKenzie

    WRITER & ADVISOR TO STRIPE

  • Aella

    SEX RESEARCHER & WRITER

  • Byrne Hobart

    AUTHOR OF THE DIFF

  • Cate Hall

    CEO OF ALVEA

See all

Hosted at Lighthaven

  • Social deception

  • Small group games